Matthew Stafford Colts Trade: The 2021 What-If
The Indianapolis Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday, reviving Peter Schrager’s account of a possible 2021 Matthew Stafford trade. The Los Angeles Rams paid Jared Goff, two first-round picks and additional compensation to acquire Stafford from the Detroit Lions, according to Turf Show Times.
Schrager reported that Stafford would have approved a trade to Indianapolis if Ballard had offered more than Rams general manager Les Snead. Stafford ultimately joined Los Angeles, while the Colts acquired Carson Wentz and continued searching for a long-term answer after Andrew Luck’s retirement.
The alternate-history question carries a measurable football consequence: Indianapolis finished 9-8 with Wentz in 2021 and missed the playoffs. A different trade could have changed the Colts’ postseason position, but the result remains a hypothetical rather than an established outcome.
Key Takeaways
- Peter Schrager reported that Matthew Stafford would have approved an Indianapolis trade if Chris Ballard had outbid Les Snead.
- The Rams acquired Stafford for Jared Goff, two first-round picks and additional compensation before the 2021 season.
- The Colts traded for Carson Wentz, finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs after the conditional first-round pick conveyed.
How the Matthew Stafford Colts Trade Could Have Changed 2021
Turf Show Times proposed an Indianapolis package built around the 21st, 54th and 84th selections in the 2021 draft, plus a 2022 first-round pick and a 2022 third-round pick. That would have been a significantly larger commitment than the Colts’ eventual Wentz deal, which included a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 first-round selection.
Stafford would have entered Frank Reich’s offense alongside running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman. Turf Show Times noted that Wentz produced 27 touchdown passes against seven interceptions, while Indianapolis ranked ninth in scoring, so the central alternate-history argument is whether Stafford could have produced enough additional wins to move the Colts into the playoffs.
The AFC South winner, Tennessee, finished 12-5, and Turf Show Times noted that a 10-7 record would have guaranteed Indianapolis a wild-card berth. The Colts instead selected receiver Alec Pierce in the second round in 2022, another roster decision that could have looked different if the team had spent its premium picks on Stafford.
The Picks Behind the Rams Stafford Trade
Indianapolis’ actual path left the team with the opportunity to use its 2021 first-round pick on defensive end Kwity Paye at No. 21. The conditional first-round pick sent for Wentz became the 16th selection in 2022 after Wentz played more than 75% of the Colts’ snaps, and Washington used that pick on receiver Jahan Dotson.
| Team and transaction | Draft capital or players involved |
|---|---|
| Rams’ actual Stafford trade | Jared Goff, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks, plus a third-round pick |
| Colts’ actual Wentz trade | 2021 third-round pick and conditional 2022 first-round pick |
| Proposed Colts Stafford offer | 2021 picks No. 21, No. 54 and No. 84, plus 2022 first- and third-round picks |
The Rams did not have a 2021 first-round pick because of the trade that brought Jalen Ramsey to Los Angeles. Brad Holmes viewed Goff as carrying first-round value for Detroit, giving Snead a quarterback asset that Indianapolis could not match in its proposed package.
The Rams And Colts Took Different Quarterback Paths
Without Stafford, the Rams would have entered the offseason with Goff and John Wolford as potential options. Ian Rapoport reported that Sean McVay was prepared to hold a competition between the two quarterbacks, while Turf Show Times said Los Angeles would have continued looking for another answer.
The Rams’ actual decision paired Stafford with an existing roster that included Cooper Kupp and a team built to compete immediately. Turf Show Times argued that removing Stafford from the 2021 team could have changed the Rams’ season, including the deep passing attack and three late postseason drives that preceded the Super Bowl victory.
The front-office consequences are part of the same hypothetical. Turf Show Times noted that Snead and McVay received extensions in September 2022, while the Colts’ later decision to fire Ballard brought renewed attention to the quarterback choice that preceded Indianapolis’ 9-8 season.
